Four major domestic car market hidden
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After more than a year of demand exceeds supply, the domestic passenger car market has seen 100,000 inventories for the first time. Last week, Ford, who has always been low-key, announced that it will increase China’s investment by 1 billion U.S. dollars and expand its production capacity from 20,000 to 150,000; currently, At least 6 well-known home appliance companies in China have invested heavily in the automobile industry; after the domestic BMW is offline, its localization rate is less than 1%.
Although on the surface, the above figures are not related, perhaps in the eyes of the average person, with the exception of the 100,000 “insignificant†inventory, the other three indicate that the domestic auto industry is “going ahead.†However, if we use the perspective of development, this set of figures truly reflects the long-term concerns and near-term concerns of the domestic auto industry.
How to do 100,000 inventory?
Although experts interviewed by the reporter believe that 100,000 inventories are still a relatively normal figure in terms of the current capacity of the domestic auto market, they also pointed out that this is also a dangerous signal. Wang Xiaoguang, head of the China Automotive Industry Business Review Group, believes that the auto market will achieve a growth rate of over 70% this year. The market is not saturated, and auto makers are still eating the market, but with the gradual release of accumulated purchasing power, the growth rate will increase. The proportion will be reduced, and it is expected that it will not be possible to maintain growth of more than 50% next year. Therefore, although the current inventory is relatively reasonable, but with the decrease in market growth, if not digested as soon as possible will also create pressure on manufacturers.
Jia Xinguang, chief analyst of China Automotive Industry Consulting and Development Co., Ltd., believes that there are only two methods for digesting inventory. First, manufacturers control the supply of dealers, and do not roll snowballs; second, price reduction. In fact, the ultimate goal of both is to force car dealers to lower prices. According to internal data, nearly 50,000 stocks that appeared at the end of last year were digested through the price cuts at the beginning of the year. Although this year, manufacturers are also catching drugs, but the results are far less effective.
How to go on the road to expansion?
The “blowout†market in the domestic automobile market has caused the flow of Chinese and foreign capitals to flood. Most regions in China regard the auto industry as a local pillar industry and must enter this “fast lane†regardless of the conditions. So, has China's auto industry been overheated? How should the road to expansion of the domestic auto industry go?
Wang Xiaoguang believes that from the current point of view, the auto industry is hot but not too hot. Because the auto market has a reasonable contradiction between the designed production capacity and actual demand, the vacancy rate is reasonable if it stays within 25%. With the actual demand of more than 1.8 million vehicles, the ratio of design capacity to actual demand vacancy and actual demand is less than 12%. However, how much vacancy rate can be achieved next year and even later is still a variable.
The auto industry is not "hot" but "virtual." Jia Xinguang once said that this feature is reflected more in domestic companies. Because foreign companies entering China are mature brands, capital strength and capital operation experience are all superior, and its expansion path in China is gradual. It is precisely because of this that domestic companies, especially those that have just emerged as "assembly factories", appear to be "naive" and "simple". It is understood that there are currently a total of 123 vehicle manufacturers in China, only two of which have a production capacity of 500,000, and more than 70 of which have a capacity of less than 1,000. This year, the company has a production capacity of 4 million vehicles nationwide, and each of the nine giants in the world has its own production capacity. More than 4 million vehicles. With such a large disparity in capacity, how can one make people believe that the expansion of domestic enterprises is full of sunshine?
In this regard, the relevant experts also put forward different views that the survival of the fittest. In their opinion, many small businesses will go back to the road of integration after experiencing “waves of sand and sandâ€. Now, FAW Group and SAIC Group have also formed their fists after mergers and reorganizations. Although this conforms to the laws of the market economy, it must also be admitted that when foreign investors have already completed the preparations for “receiving moneyâ€, domestic companies are still consuming large amounts of capital, which is undoubtedly a shortcoming for the just-started Chinese auto industry. .
How to strengthen the independent research and development?
The weakest independent research and development capability is the biggest pain in the domestic auto industry. Less than 1% of domestic BMW's localization rate once again confirms the authenticity of “imported vehicles shipped to China and four wheels for replacement.†It is understood that China’s tariff on imported spare parts is far lower than that of imported vehicles. Therefore, sales of cars in China by means of KD (parts assembly) have become a way for Nuggets for foreign brands, and our domestic companies are also happy to Do a "screwdriver."
Experts said in an interview with reporters that poor self-research and development capability is a “cartilage disease†in the domestic automobile industry. At present, China, Chery and Geely are the only well-known domestic brands with independent intellectual property rights, and 90% of the market is occupied by joint venture products. Last year, sales of cars increased by more than 300,000 vehicles, of which 170,000 were assembled by KD. This year will be even higher. Although the Audi A4 and BMW achieve domestic production, the price is not low. The main reason is the problem of localization rate. Similarly, the reason why Chery has the largest decline this year shows that domestic brands have absolute control over costs. Jia Xinguang believes that KD should be a form of trade, not a production method. At present, most manufacturers use the KD production method. In the long run, not only does it mean that they do not have the ability to look after their homes, but it also hurts the entire industry, because the KD form also hinders the development of related domestic accessory industries.
However, the upcoming new automobile industry policy has given domestic companies independent research and development momentum. It is understood that the new policy will strictly control KD assembly to increase the degree of localization. More than 40% of CKD (all parts are assembled) will be subject to customs duties on imported vehicle standards.
How to break through consumer misunderstandings?
Summarizing sales in the first nine months, there is also a strange phenomenon that high-end cars have passed over economy cars. Experts believe that this shows that the current domestic auto market is still not mature. Because in the world, car consumption is a “pyramid†type, that is, the base of the economic vehicle with a low price and a large amount of composition, while the domestic automobile market is not an inverted “pyramidâ€, but it is also an unstable straight tube. Many consumers prematurely entered the mid- to high-end car market whose price was higher than that of the international market, bringing a wrong signal to producers and decision makers. Therefore, manufacturers put too much energy into high-end cars, but this is by no means The development direction of the domestic automobile market. In fact, South Korea and Japan have all developed from low-priced cars. When they first hit the US market, they all took a car with a displacement of more than one litre to knock on the door.
However, Wang Xiaoguang also gave an explanation of the current "abnormality" in the auto market. He believes that the reason why the sales of high-end cars are high this year is that the potential of the original market has not been completely released and this situation will definitely not occur next year. Therefore, this kind of “abnormality†is only a short-term behavior. It is therefore not advisable for some manufacturers to significantly increase their capacity plans for the next year. Blind adversaries and “stuffed bees†are the current misunderstandings in the marketing of state-owned enterprises.