Machinery Industry: 09 year-on-year high base growth expectation decline

"Neutral" rating for construction machinery industry. We expect that the start of new real estate for new real estate in the country will start to decline in early 2011, and the growth rate of construction machinery sales will turn downwards. However, weekly sales in the first hand of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in each week in August continued to climb, rising by 24% from the previous week in the first week of September and reaching 66%-90% in the same period of 2009, reaching 1.5 times of the same period in 2008. Real estate gold nine silver ten market can be expected. In the light of the year-on-year trend and the quarterly trend towards a good real estate environment, we believe that the stocks of construction machinery in the “Jinjiuyin 10” market should be reduced.

Railway equipment industry "overweight" rating. At present, the output of all railway vehicles continues to grow steadily. Due to the high base in 2009, the growth rate of railway investment in fixed assets has been declining. We are optimistic about the demand for relevant equipment in railway construction in the next few years. In the second half of the year and next year, the growth rate of the economic growth will be adjusted. The growth of railway equipment enterprises is clear, and the valuation of the south and north vehicles is low, giving China South Locomotive, China CNR and Times New Materials a “buy” rating.

Machine tool industry "neutral" rating. The recovery of the entire domestic machine tool industry in the first half of 2010 was significant, and orders increased significantly year-on-year. Looking into the future demand for domestic machine tools, state-owned enterprises have been driven by the “four trillion” high tide. The decline in fixed asset investment growth in the second half of the year is a high-probability event, and the market supply has also increased significantly. The medium- and large-sized machine tools that are in short supply in the previous period are currently falling. The domestic production capacity was obviously released and the degree of market competition increased.

Petroleum drilling equipment industry "overweight" rating. The oil drilling industry apparently lags behind oil prices. The number of rigs currently in use has not yet returned to the number before the financial crisis. The decline in profitability in May has just been initially contained. It is expected that 2010 will be the lowest phase of the industry, with a significant recovery in 2011. Jereh AG, which can still achieve profit growth when the industry is down, currently has good investment opportunities.

Refrigeration industry "overweight" rating. Since the second half of 2009, the sales volume of domestic air-conditioner refrigerators has increased significantly. The government's support for energy-saving and refrigeration equipment has gradually increased. We believe that air-conditioning and refrigerator production will continue to grow steadily in the second half of 2010. With the introduction of "Agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Development Plan", the development of China's cold chain industry will inevitably accelerate, benefit from the economic transformation and energy-saving emission reduction policy to promote, optimistic about the overall development prospects of the industry, it is recommended to pay attention to the greatest degree of correlation with the cold chain Cold shares, and actively expand the shield and safety environment of nuclear power, cold chain and other business areas.

Metallurgical and mining equipment industry "neutral" rating. The industry lags behind the economic cycle, the demand for metallurgical equipment is still low, the recovery still needs to wait, the relative recovery of coal equipment demand is relatively good, the transformation needs of small and medium-sized coal mines and the demand for coal mining equipment also provide relatively stable demand for coal mining equipment, we are optimistic about having Tiandi Technology, which supplies a full range of supply capacity, also recommends focusing on the positive impact of new energy equipment business on related companies.

Shipbuilding industry "neutral" rating. Although there has been a significant rebound in new ship orders and new ship prices since the beginning of 2010, there is still a considerable gap compared to the peak level of historical periods. Therefore, we believe that the shipbuilding industry is still at the bottom of the boom cycle and it is difficult to say in the short term. Inversion, the current low valuation level also reflects this expectation.

Aerospace equipment industry "overweight" rating. Although the valuation of industry stocks is generally too high, considering that the asset securitization process of China’s major military industry groups is currently accelerating, the market has a strong expectation of asset injection for various listed companies in the aerospace equipment industry, and it is equally With clear asset integration positioning, we still maintain an "overweight" rating for the industry.