Construction machinery eats "high-iron rice" high-speed rail deceleration affected

As a policy-sensitive construction machinery industry, the country's just-released high-speed rail deceleration policy will no doubt put upward pressure on the industries that have slowed down. On August 10, the State Council held an executive meeting to reorganize the safety assessment of the railway construction projects that have been approved but have not yet started. In addition, the suspension of the approval of new railway construction projects.

This news heralded the end of the "leap-forward" development model for China's high-speed trains that began in 1997. What does this mean for Chinese equipment companies that have eaten for many years high-speed rail rice, especially for construction machinery companies?

High-speed rail is a huge boost to construction machinery products. Due to the national infrastructure construction, especially the investment effect brought by high-speed rail projects, domestic construction machinery companies have increased their efforts in the industry in recent years.

According to the prediction of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the total investment of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is 220 billion yuan, of which infrastructure accounts for 100 billion yuan, construction machinery procurement scale is about 20.9 billion yuan, and the average annual purchase amount is about 4.2 billion yuan.

High-speed rail has a large demand for construction machinery and presents a phased feature. During the different phases of high-speed rail construction, the required construction machinery and equipment are also different. According to the construction process, as time goes by, the required types of construction machinery and special accessories are as follows: bulldozers and flat machines, rotary drilling rigs, concrete machinery, one station and three vehicles, bridge bearings, beam box equipment, and bridge erecting machines. Pavers, CA mortar or track slabs. Specifically speaking, rotary drilling drills and other piling equipment have a large demand in the civil construction phase, and concrete machines and bridge building machines require a large amount of time in the bridge erection phase.

Take concrete machinery as an example. Because the high-speed railway passenger dedicated line has special requirements for the concrete of bridge foundations, piers and prefabricated beams, namely high-performance concrete, durable concrete, etc., and the output is very large. This requires a concrete mixing plant with large production capacity, high material accuracy, and stable and reliable performance. Due to the rapid development of high-speed railways, the demand for concrete by some construction units remains high. If the construction of the Wuhan-Guangzhou Railway starts, the situation that concrete is in short supply will appear on the market. This has pushed the concrete machinery market up.

The “large pies” of the high-speed rail project drew the appetite of the construction machinery companies. They all invested heavily and invested more. This year, XCMG's concrete construction machinery industry base has a total investment of 2 billion yuan. After it is put into production, it will form an annual production capacity of 3000 concrete pump trucks, 600 concrete pump trailers, 600 concrete truck-mounted pumps and 150 shotcrete trucks.

Some companies that did not engage in concrete machinery also joined in. Shantui invested in the construction of the Chutian new factory with Japanese Japanese workers and Wuhan Zhongnan Electromechanical Co., Ltd. last year. After reaching production capacity, it can have an annual production capacity of 3,000 sets of various types of concrete mixer trucks, 1700 sets of boom type pump trucks, 1,000 sets of holding pumps, and 200 sets of concrete mixing stations, which can realize an operating income of 10 billion yuan. Last year, Shantui Concrete Machinery achieved an explosion of 596%. In the first quarter of 2011, the growth of concrete machinery in Shantui's home-made products has continued to grow at a high level.

The growth of concrete machinery will be decelerated Due to the enthusiasm of public enterprises for concrete machinery, in 2011, the sub-sector clearly showed a trend of slower growth.

In the interview with the author, Sheng Chunfang, secretary general of the China Construction Machinery Association Concrete Machinery Branch, said in an interview with the author that in 2010, when predicting the growth rate of the concrete machinery industry, the industry generally believed that the growth rate in 2011 is likely to double, but from this year’s In actual operating conditions, this forecast is clearly overestimated.

It is understood that, consistent with the entire construction machinery industry, concrete machinery developed rapidly in the first quarter of 2011, and the operating conditions were still good in April, but the performance was worse in May and even worse in June. Since the third quarter, some orders have been produced, customers have delayed picking up, and some orders have simply been cancelled by customers. Based on the overall development of 2011, Sheng Chunfang believes that the annual growth of concrete machinery in 2011 is expected to be 20% to 30%.

As one of the important markets for concrete machinery products, “the turn of policies for high-speed rail projects will certainly have a negative impact on the concrete machinery industry,” Sheng Chunfang told the author.

Therefore, Sheng Chunfang suggested that SMEs must not rush into the current situation of the concrete machinery industry. The main reasons include the following points.

First of all, concrete machinery is greatly affected by the national macro-control policies, and its market performance is basically determined by the amount of engineering. Any turmoil in national policies will have an impact on this industry.

Second, SMEs have little room to enter. The biggest feature of concrete machinery is the high technical content and the high price of a single unit. The price of a concrete mixing station is more than 10 million yuan, and the price of a single concrete pump unit is also several million yuan. SMEs have limited strength in technology and capital compared with large companies.

In addition, large companies have advantages in financing. In the industry, bank mortgages and financial leasing have become more and more common buying methods. Large-scale construction machinery enterprises with strong capabilities have established a good source of funds and creditworthiness for many years, which facilitates the development of related businesses and SMEs can hardly reach.

The overall decline in the high-speed rail segment was actually on the first Monday after the July 23 heavy rail accident on July 25, July 25. The entire high-speed rail segment fell sharply, and the share prices of high-speed rail-related companies also fell.

Statistics show that the high-speed rail index on July 25 has created the largest one-day drop of 5.81% this year. The major stocks companies that produce vehicles, such as China South Locomotive and China North Locomotive Co., Ltd., have fallen due to the stock price.

Another affected group is some companies that provide parts for high-speed rail. Such as Tianma shares, Qinghai Huading and so on. On July 25, Tianma shares were firmly sealed on the daily limit.

As a construction machinery industry that provides equipment for high-speed rail, from the current stock market performance, the degree of influence has not been as direct as the two groups mentioned above. However, securities analysts say that the indirect impact caused by the shrinking customer market is also Will be reflected.

According to the calculation of the railway infrastructure investment of 600 billion yuan, the share of civil engineering projects is about 55%. This means that the amount of civil engineering investment in China this year will reach 330 billion yuan. The demolition cost is about 50 billion yuan, the cost of subgrade construction is about 50 billion yuan, the construction cost of bridges and culverts is about 110 billion yuan, and the tunnel is about 110 billion yuan. According to previous forecasts, the scale of investment in railway construction in 2011 will directly increase the demand for more than 10% of the construction machinery market in China. With the deceleration of high-speed railways, the market for at least several billion yuan will remain. How the construction machinery industry can effectively reduce the adverse effects of changes in the high-speed rail policy requires the construction machinery industry to respond in a timely manner.